汇率变动对我国进出口贸易的影响分析毕业专业论文.docxVIP

重庆大学本科学生毕业设计（论文）汇率变动对我国进出口贸易的影响分析学生：学号：指导教师：专业：经济学(经济贸易方向)重庆大学公共管理学院二O一五年六月Graduation Design(Thesis) of Chongqing UniversityThe impact of exchange rate fluctuation on China 's import and export tradeUndergraduate：Supervisor：Major：Economics(Direction of economic trade)College of public managementChongqing UniversityJune 2015摘 要汇率把各国的经济联系为一体可以作为联系国际市场的纽带，现今已经经济全球化，汇率起着作用是举足轻重的，它是调节国际经济的最直接的方式之一，也是最有效的手段之一。我们国家05年7月进行汇率制度改革之后，有管理的浮动汇率制度使汇率的不确定性以及复杂性加重，对我国的进出口贸易产生的影响也进一步加大。本文主要是针对“汇改”之后人民币汇率变动对我国进出口贸易影响进行研究。在我国不同经济发展时期、不同汇率制度下的汇率变化，基于汇率变动对进出口贸易影响的一般机理，对我国人民币实际有效汇率变动对我国进出口贸易的影响进行了一些研究。为了增强研究结论的针对性和说服力，在实证分析时，本文使用了ADF检验等方法，分别对我国人民币实际有效汇率对贸易收支的影响做了相关的研究。通过研究分析，我们得到的结论主要有：我国人民币实际有效汇率与进出口总额、出口额之间存在一个协整关系，人民币实际有效汇率与进口额之间没有协整关系。然后给出了在目前我国应该釆取的措施来应对人民币持续升值对进出口的影响，进一步扩大我国的进出口贸易。关键词：人民帀汇率，进出口贸易，政策ABSTRACTExchange rate as a tie combines the international markets together； exchangerate which plays an important role in the economic globalization these years， notonly is the most effective way to regulate international economic，but also the mostdirect means. After the reform of Chinese exchange rate regime， the floatingexchange rate regime increases the uncertainty and complexity of exchange rate，andfurther increase the impact to Chinese import and export trade .This paper mainly aims at the impact of RMB exchange rate on China's import and export after the exchange rate reform.. Based on changes in the exchange rate on import and export trade， the general mechanism of exchange rate changes in China's different economic development period， under different exchange rate regimes were analyzed， RMB real effective exchange rate on China's import and export trade influence were studied. In order to enhance the research conclusions of the targeted and convincing， in the empirical analysis. In this paper， we use the ADF test and other methods， respectively， the RMB real effective influence of exchange rate on trade balance do the related research.Through research， the author draws the con