【英文】化工过程风险评估.ppt

Chapter 5. Risk Assessment CONTENTS● Review probability mathematics, including the mathematics ofequipment failure,●Show how the failure probabilities of individual hardwarecomponents contribute to the failure of a process,●Describe two probabilistic methods (event trees and faulttrees),●Describe the concepts of layer of protection analysis (LOPA),and● Describe the relationship between quantitative risk analysis(QRA) and LOPA. 5-1 Review of Probability Theory Equipment failures or faults in a process occur as a result of a complex interaction of the individual components. The overall probability of a failure in a process depends highly on the nature of this interaction. In this section we? define the various types of interactions and? describe how to perform failure probabilitycomputations. Data are collected on the failure rate of a particular hardware component. With adequate data it can be shown that, on average, the component fails after a certain period of time.This is called the average failure rate and is represented by μ with units of faults/time. The probability that the component will not fail during the time interval (0, t) is given by a Poisson distribution: 5-1 Review of Probability Theory R(t) = e－μt （ 5-1）where R is the reliability.Equation 5-1assumes a constant failure rate μ.As t→∞， the reliability goes to 0. The speed atwhich this occurs depends on the value of the failure rate μ. The higher the failure rate, the faster the reliability decreases. Other and more complex distributions are available. This simple exponential distribution is the one that is used most commonly because it requires only a single parameter, μ。 The complement of the reliability is called the failure probability (or sometimes the unreliability), p, and it is given by 5-1 Review of Probability Theory The failure density function is defined as the derivative of the failure probability: The area under the