美国农业部-美国农业-Livestock，Dairy，and Poultry Outlook-20170718-USDA.pdfVIP

Economic Research Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Service Situation and Outlook Outlook LDP-M-277 Mildred Haley Keithly Jones mhaley@ kjones@ July 18, 2017 Increases in 2018 Red Meat and Poultry Per Capita Disappearance Largely Due to Strong Production Forecasts Next Year Contents Cattle/Beef Positive changes in 2018 per capita beef, pork, and poultry disappearance are expected Dairy to be driven largely by production increases, but also by changes in trade. Lamb and Pork/Hogs mutton per capita disappearance is expected to decline 1.7 percent, however, due to a Lamb/Mutton small decline in production and a small increase in exports. For beef, the 1.3-percent Poultry increase in per capita disappearance to 57.9 pounds is the result of a 2.2-percent Contacts and Links increase in the 2018 production forecast, together with stronger beef imports (2.9 percent larger than the 2017 forecast) and a 1.9-percent increase in beef exports. The 1.7- Tables percent change in the pork per capita in 2018—to 50.9 pounds, the largest per capita disappearance since 2004—is expected even though exports are forecast to increase 3.8 Red Meat and Poultry percent next year. The current pork industry expansion, with production next year Dairy Forecast expected to increase 3.5 percent, drives the expected increase in per capita pork disappearance. The broiler per capita disappearance increase— 1.3 percent to 91.3