预测电信行业客户流失——基于一种SAS生存分析模式的应用程序外文翻译.doc

标题：Predicting Customer Churn in the Telecommunications Industry –– An Application of Survival Analysis Modeling Using SAS 原文：ABSTRACT Conventional statistical methods (e.g. logistics regression, decision tree, and etc.) are very successful in predicting customer churn. However, these methods could hardly predict when customers will churn, or how long the customers will stay with. The goal of this study is to apply survival analysis techniques to predict customer churn by using data from a telecommunications company. This study will help telecommunications companies understand customer churn risk and customer churn hazard in a timing manner by predicting which customer will churn and when they will churn. The findings from this study are helpful for telecommunications companies to optimize their customer retention and/or treatment resources in their churn reduction efforts. INTRODUCTION In the telecommunication industry, customers are able to choose among multiple service providers and actively exercise their rights of switching from one service provider to another. In this fiercely competitive market, customers demand tailored products and better services at less prices, while service providers constantly focus on acquisitions as their business goals. Given the fact that the telecommunications industry experiences an average of 30-35 percent annual churn rate and it costs 5-10 times more to recruit a new customer than to retain an existing one, customer retention has now become even more important than customer acquisition. For many incumbent operators, retaining high profitable customers is the number one business pain. Many telecommunications companies deploy retention strategies in synchronizing programs and processes to keep customers longer by providing them with tailored products and services. With retention strategies in place, many companies start to include churn reduction as one of their business goals. In order to support telecommunications companies man