广东省城乡差距程度与趋势研究.pdf

摘 要 处理好城乡关系，协调城乡发展，是社会经济持续健康发展的必要条件，也 是构建和谐社会的必然选择和现实要求。 本文基于广东省城乡差距的现实状况，搜集大量统计数据，运用统计测度方 法，用数据说话，本文主要思路和观点如下： 一是通过建立向量自回归模型（VAR ），考察了经济增长、城市化、城市 偏向、外资开放与城乡差距之间的动态关系。实证分析表明，经济增长、城市偏 向、外资开放是城乡收入差距扩大的格兰杰原因；经济增长、城市化、城市偏向、 外资开放对城乡收入差距产生正向冲击效应。 二是进一步揭示城乡在居民收入、生活消费、社会保障、社会投资等方面差 距变化的基本趋势。 三是通过选取 3 个一级指标 14 个二级指标来对广东省城乡差距进行统计监 测。统计监测表明，2005-2008年广东省城乡差距综合指数平均达到87.77%，表 明广东省城乡差距过大。 最后，针对广东省城乡差距引发的深层次问题，提出若干对策措施和政策建 议。 关键词：城乡差距 格兰杰因果检验 脉冲响应函数 统计监测 I Abstract It is necessary to handle the relationship between urban and rural areas properly and coordinate urban and rural development, which is the inevitable choice and practical requirements for building a harmonious society. Based on the reality of the gap between urban and rural areas in Guangdong Province, the paper collects a lot of statistical data and uses methods of statistical measure to speak with the data. the main ideas and views are as follows: 1stly, By a VAR model, the paper examines the mechanism between economic growth, urbanization, urban bias, FDI and urban-rural inequality. Empirical analysis shows that economic growth, urban bias and FDI are the Granger cause to urban-rural inequality; the responses of urban-rural inequality to economic growth, urbanization, urban bias and FDI are positive. 2ndly, the paper further reveals the basic trend of the changing gap in residents’ income, consumption, social security and social investment. 3rdly, by choosing 3 first-class indexes and 14 second-class indexes, the paper conducts statistical monitoring of the gap between urban and rural areas in Guangdong Province. Statistical monitoring shows that, from 2005 t