经济增长与金融发展方向的因果关系外文翻译.doc

外文翻译 原文 The direction of causality between financialDevelopment and economic growth Material Source: Journal of Development Economics Documentos de Trabajo del Banco Central de Chile Working Papers of the Central Bank of Chile Huérfanos 1175, primer piso. 2002(10). Author: César Calderón Lin Liu Abstract This paper employs the Geweke decomposition test on pooled data of 109 developing and industrialcountries from 1960 to 1994 to examine the direction of causality between financial developmentand economic growth. The paper finds that (1) financial development generally leads to economicgrowth; (2) the Granger causality from financial development to economic growth and the Grangercausality from economic growth to financial development coexist; (3) financial deepeningcontributes more to the causal relationships in the developing countries than in the industrialcountries; (4) the longer the sampling interval, the larger the effect of financial development oneconomic growth; (5) financial deepening propels economic growth through both a more rapidcapital accumulation and productivity growth, with the latter channel being the strongest. Introduction Ever since Schumpeter (1911), and more recently McKinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973), the relationship between financial development and economic growth has been extensivelystudied.It is now well recognized that financial development is crucial for economic growth.Furthermore, thedirection of causality between financial development and economic growth iscrucial because it has significantly different implications for development policy. However, this causal relationship remains unclear. This paper employs an innovative econometric technique, new financial measures, and new data to gain insight into this issue. Does financial development promote economic growth, or does economic growth propel development? These possible directions of causality between financial development andgrowth are labeled by Patrick (1966) as the supply