长三角投资产业结构与经济增长关系实证研究设计论文.docVIP

长三角投资产业结构与经济增长关系实证研究 统计学专业 .胡玲英（079114349）指导教师：江海峰副教授 摘要 20世纪 90年代以来，长江三角洲区域经济发展日益成为各界研究的热点，以往 对此进行的很多研究基本上属于定性分析，而在定量研究方面有所欠缺。本文即是在 “十二五”规划出炉，产业升级、结构调整被提上日程的大背景下，运用统计学和计 量经济学的研究方法，对长三角投资产业结构与经济增长的关系进行了实证研究，这 对长三角地区投资结构优化具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。通过本文的研究得到如 下几点结论：首先，第二、三产业投资额呈现快速增长的强劲势头，其中，第三产业 投资规模又明显大于第二产业；其次，通过灰色关联度计算发现，第一、三产业增加 值对投资的关联度比较高；再次，通过变异系数和投资效果系数的比较发现，对第三 产业投资调整力度最大，第一产业投资波动较其他产业明显，近年来第二、三产业近 年来投资效益不断下降；最后，通过协整分析发现，第二、三产业投资与经济增长存 在长期稳定的比例关系，短期波动不会影响长期均衡。针对上述研究结论，结合实际， 本文的最后提出了相应的对策建议。 关键词：长三角；投资产业结构；经济增长；灰色关联度；协整 安徽工业大学 毕业论文 Abstract Since 1990s, the economic development of the Yangtze River delta has been a hot spot in current regional researches. Most of those researches, however, were based on qualitative analysis and lack of quantitative study. Accordingly, during 12th Five Year Plan, a period putting forward industrial upgrade and structure adjustment, this paper aims at an empirical study on the status of investment structure and the relations between investment industrial structure and economic growth in the Yangtze River delta, which will exert great significance on its optimization of industry structure. Using statistics and econometrics research method and combining the current situation, this paper has drawn following conclusions: firstly, growth of investment in the second and tertiary industry keep a strong momentum, with the tertiary industry ranking the first; secondly, the gray relational computation shows that correlations with GDP of the first industry and the tertiary industry on investment correlation are higher; thirdly, the variation coefficient and investment coefficient comparison show that investment in the tertiary industry has experienced the largest adjustment scale, and the first industry investment suffers from more fluctuations than other industry obviously, but in recent years, investment efficiency in the second and third industry in recent