基于实物期权的战略性新兴产业投资决策研究.pdfVIP

基于实物期权的战略性新兴产业投资决策研究1 1,2 1,2 1,2 李玮玮 ，盛巧燕 ，吴优 （1.南京信息工程大学经济管理学院 江苏南京 210044 ） (2.南京信息工程大学制造业发展研究院 江苏南京 210044) 摘要 随着后金融危机的生产要素成本不断上升、资源环境约束的强化、国际经济竞争格局的不断变 化以及经济政策的后遗症，战略性新兴产业一词已经成为期刊、报纸、杂志、网络、电视节目等各种 媒介出现频率次数最多的术语之一。战略性新兴产业具有高风险、高投资、高收益的特征，传统的投 资分析方法内在缺陷在分析此类投资决策显得无能为力。本文引入实物期权分析法，它在处理不确定 性、非对称的损益结构以及选择权方面极好的契合了战略性新兴产业发展的特点，克服了净现值NPV 理论上的缺陷和在实证中无法解决的难题。可以说，实物期权方法的应用为战略性新兴产业的投资决 策提供了一种创新性的分析工具。 关键词 实物期权；战略性新兴产业；投资决策 Studies of strategic emerging industry based on the theory of real options Li weiwei, Sheng qiaoyan, Wu you (School of Economics and Management, NUIST, Nanjing, 210044) Abstract With the continuous rising of production factors, the intensification of resources constraint , ever-increasingly fierce completion and the aftermath of economic policy after finance crisis, strategic emerging industry has become a hot topic in a variety of media such as periodicals, newspapers, magazines, networks and TV. The traditional evaluation methods have some limitations, which makes this method helpless when strategic emerging industry has the character of hi-risk, hi-investment and hi-reward. So this paper introduces real options, which breaks through the limits and manacles of the traditional evaluate techniques, adapting well strategic emerging industry characterized by uncertainty and risk, and offering innovational solution to quantifying the operating flexibility and strategic adaptability. So real options theory provide a useful tool for the decision of strategic emerging industr