Capoccia and Kelemen WP 2014教程.pdfVIP

The STudy of CriTiCal Jun CTureS Theory, narrative, and Counterfactuals in historical institutionalism By Giovanni CapoCCia and r. daniel Kelemen* I. IntroductIon he concept of “critical junctures” is an essential building block Tof historical institutionalism. many causal arguments in the his- torical institutionalist literature postulate a dual model of institutional development characterized by relatively long periods of path-depen- dent institutional stability and reproduction that are punctuated oc- casionally by brief phases of institutional flux—referred to as critical junctures—during which more dramatic change is possible. 1 The causal logic behind such arguments emphasizes the lasting impact of choices made during those critical junctures in history.2 These choices close off alternative options and lead to the establishment of institutions that generate self-reinforcing path-dependent processes. in pierson’s words, * The authors thank michael Bailey, nancy Bermeo, melani Cammett, John Gerring, peter hall, Stephen hanson, Sara hobolt, Jack levy, parina patel, michael rosen, margaret Stevens, the partici- pants to the panel “Critical Junctures, path dependency and process Tracing” at the annual meeting of the american political Science association, Washington, d.C., September 1–4, 2005, and the sem- inar on Comparative political economy in the department of politics and ir at oxford university, as well as three anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions. The usual disclaimer applies. 1 of course, this dual model of institutional development is not the only one used by histori- cal institutionalists: important recent contributions have emphasized alternative causal models such as layering, conversion, and drift. See, for instance, Kathleen Thel