人口、就业与土地的非农化%3a一个整体视角的计量研究论文.pdfVIP

人口、就业与土地的非农化：一个整体视角的计量研究 胡伟艳，张安录 （华中农业大学土地管理学院，湖北武汉，430070） 摘要：人口、就业与土地的非农化三方面有非常紧密的关联性，需要从一个整体的视角来进行分 析。文章考虑农地非农化变量扩展 Carlino-Mills的区域增长模型，应用两阶段最小二乘法 （TSLS）利用中国地级城市层面的数据对人口、就业与土地非农化之间的相互关系进行实证研究。 初步研究结论认为城市人口与非农就业相互影响，但非农就业对城市人口的影响要大于城市人口对 非农就业的影响；城市人口和非农就业对农地非农化有显著的正的影响，反之农地非农化对城市人 口和非农就业的影响为正，但统计上并不显著。进一步地分析发现流动人口对农地非农化的影响显 著；无论从总量还是从增量角度而言，第二产业对农地非农化的影响要大于第三产业。研究结果表 明，在合理引导人口流动的前提下注重产业结构的调整以及高工业化水平城市的土地集约利用将有 利于协调三者之间的关系，推进城市化进程。 关键词：人口城市化；就业非农化；土地非农化 Non-agriculturalPopulation,JobsandLand:AEconometricStudyinanIntegratedFramework NNoonn--aaggrriiccuullttuurraallPPooppuullaattiioonn,,JJoobbssaannddLLaanndd::AAEEccoonnoommeettrriiccSSttuuddyyiinnaannIInntteeggrraatteeddFFrraammeewwoorrkk Wei-yanHu,An-luZhang (CollegeofLandManagement,HuazhongAgriculturalUniversity,Wuhan,Hubei,430070) Abstract AAbbssttrraacctt: There are close interrelationships between non-agricultural population,jobs and land,the core of urbanization. Mostresearchessofarhaveneglectedthoseinterrelationshipsandfailedtoanalyze theminan integrated framework. We establish such a framework taking account rural urban land conversion into Carlino-Mills’s model on regional growth,employ two-stage-least-square to estimate the interrelationships andtest the modelusing recentdata for district (grade) cities in China(from 1999 to 2005).Ourpreliminary results show that (1)urban population was affected by nonagricultural jobs and nonagricultural jobs was affected by urban population and both were positive and significant, but the impacts of the former to the latter is larger than that on the latter to the former;(2)rural urban land conversion was affected by urban population and nonagricultural jobs,and this was positive and significant,while urban population and nonagricultural jobs were affected by rural urban land conversion,this was positive but not significa