MCM ICM 数学建模优秀论文 世界水资源预测模型.pdfVIP

- Preventing the Hydrocalypse 145 Preventing the Hydrocalypse: A Model for Predicting and Managing Worldwide Water Resources Steven Krumholz Frances Haugen Daniel Lindquist Franklin W. Olin College of Engineering Needham, MA Advisor: Burt Tilley Summary We examine and model trends in water withdrawal throughout the world and develop plans to prevent using water beyond its renewable capacity. We look at the three major components of water consumption: agricultural, industrial, and municipal uses. We formulate a differential model to account - for the rates of change of these uses, and how this change would affect the overall consumption of water within the studied region. We also incorporate feedback based on economic and political stimuli that force a decrease in water usage as it approaches dangerous consumption levels. Using historical data from the United States, We determine initial condi- tions for our model and project U.S. water usage to the year 2025. The model simulates how a country could,react to water scarcity without drawing from nonrenewable water sources. In addition to the model, we also discuss policies for effective water manage- ment by reducing freshwater usage and preventing tapping into nonrenewable resources. By being able to predict problem areas and suggesting methods of improving water usage in those areas, we can hope to prevent the hydroca- lypse. The UMAPJournal26(2) (2005)145-162. @Copyright 2005by COMAP, Inc. All rights reserved. Permission to make digital or hard copies of part or all of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice. Abstracting with cred