最新版alumina0501.pdfVIP

中国最大下载资料网 January 2005 Spot prices largely unmoved by Chinese tax changes • Tax changes (abolition of 8% VAT rebate on exports and introduction of a 5% export tax) have raised questions over the strength of Chinese aluminium production this year. • CRU believes that the tax changes will have a limited impact on metal production in the country and thus Chinese buyers should return to the market after the Chinese New Year. • We expect Chinese consumers to adopt a hand-to-mouth policy, but spot prices will remain supported at current levels in the near-term. Supply/demand summary for metallurgical grade alumina (000 tonnes) 2003 % Ch 2004 % Ch 2005 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 02-03 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year YTD Q1 Production North America 1325 1296 1385 5204 12.8 1444 1486 1513 1512 5955 14.4 1494 Asia 736 708 782 2968 9.8 765 740 737 795 3036 2.3 767 Europe 1179 1242 1238 4834 -0.5 1230 1244 1252 1273 4999 3.4 1238 Oceania 4151 4147 4235 16550 2.3 4162 4176 4175 4297 16810 1.6 4385 Latin America 3034 3107 3214 12262 11.4 3267 3230 3052 3177 12727 3.8 3267 Africa 180 190 189 723 8.1 189 188 198 187 762 5.3 187 Middle East 10 11 11 39 -2.5 11 11 11 11 45 15.7 11 Eastern Europe 164 168 197 641 -0.5 249