以百日咳为例与探讨六气、气象传染性疾病的关联性及研究方法.pdfVIP

以百日咳为例探讨六气、气象与传染性疾病的 关联性研究方法 汤巧玲1付帮泽1刘宏伟2高思华1贺娟1 1北京中医药大学，北京100029 2北京市和平里医院，北京100013 摘要：目的：从中医运气学说的角度，探讨传染性疾病的发生和气象的关联性研究方法。方法：选取1970年- 1989年共20年百日咳的病例数，与各气象因素 （平均气温、平均降水量、平均水汽压、平均风速、平均相对湿度） 分别进行单因素相关分析，利用BP神经网络，建立百日咳的气象发病预警模型。结果：北京地区百日咳的高发时 间段在三之气 （夏季）。单因素相关显示其发病与平均气温、平均降水量、平均水汽压、平均相对湿度均呈正相 关。BP神经网络模型的结果显示，平均相对湿度对百日咳发病的影响程度最大。结论：百日咳发病与气温、相对 湿度和水汽压等气象因素密切相关。研究气象因素对传染性疾病发病的影响，需选择多种统计学方法进行相关性 分析，结合中医运气学说的理论和临床实际进行综合评价。 关键词：百日咳；气象；六气；中医；传染性疾病；统计学方法 Correlationstudyamongincidenceofinfectiousdiseasewithsix-qiandclimate: anexampleonwhoopingcough TANGQiao-ling1FUBang-ze1LIUHong-wei2GAOSi-hua1HEJuan1 2 Bejii Hng pnei gli 1Hpos atli B,ei ngji 001B0,31 hCi na eijingUniversityofChineseMedicine,Beijing100029,China Abstract:Objective:Toexplorethecorrelationamongtheincidenceofinfectiousdiseasewithclimatefromtheperspective ofyunqitheoryintraditionalChinesemedicine.Methods:Wecollectedthecasesofwhoopingcoughandmeteorologicaldata, includingaveragetemperature,precipitation,vaporpressure,windspeedandrelativehumidity,from1970to1989inBeijingarea. Allthedatawerecalculatedbysingle-factorcorrelationanalysis.AnalarmingmodelwascreatedbyBPneuralnet-work.Results: Therewashigherwhoopingcoughincidenceduringsummer.Theincidenceofwhoopingcoughwaspositiverelatedwithaverage temperature,precipitation,vaporpressureandrelativehumidity.AccordingtoBPneuralnetwork,theaveragerelativehumidityhad thelargestcontributiontotheincidenceofwhoopingcough.Conclusion:Theincidenceofwhoopingcoughiscloselyrelated withtemperature,relativehumidity,vaporpressureandsoon.Multiplestatisticsmethodsareneededtoresearchtheinfluence ofmeteorologicalfactorsontheincidenceofdisease,withthecombinationofTCMyunqitheoryandclinicalpracticefor comprehensiveassessment. Keywords:Whoopingcough;Climate;Six-qi;TraditionalChinesemedicine;Infectiousdisease;Statisticalmethod