水资源研究—珠江流域降雨结构时空演变特征研究.pdfVIP

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2012, 1, 94-102 doi:10.4236/jwrr.2012.13014 Published Online June 2012 (/journal/jwrr) Spatial-Temporal Changes of Precipitation Structure * across the Pearl River Basin, China Juntai Peng1,2, Qiang Zhang1#, Xiaohong Chen2 1Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 2Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou Email: pengjt@, #zhangq68@ Received: May 3rd, 2012; revised: May 21st, 2012; accepted: May 27th, 2012 Abstract: Daily precipitation data over the Pearl River basin (1960-2005) from 42 rain gauges is used in this article. Precipitation indices such as annual total precipitation amount, annual total rainy days, annual pre- cipitation intensity and annual mean rainy days are defined. These precipitation indices are analyzed using the modified Mann-Kendall method. Results show that: 1) Decreasing trend of precipitation is found mainly in the middle and upper Pearl River basin. Rainy-days are decreasing almost over the entire basin. Thus, the precipitation intensity of Pearl River basin is increasing, particularly in the middle and the eastern parts of the basin; 2) The occurrence and fractional contribution of wet periods with shorter durations (2 - 5 d) are tend- ing to be predominant while longer durations are decreasing in recent decades; 3) Heavy storms are easy to occur in the eastern of the basin during shorter durations. Higher risk of floods and reduction of water yield in the lower basin will increase uncertainty of wat