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Petrinet在风险评估中的前景.pdf

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Safety Science 41 (2003) 445–463 /locate/ssci Perspectives in the use of coloured Petri nets for risk analysis and accident modelling a, b a David Vernez *, Didier Buchs , Guillaume Pierrehumbert aInstitute of Occupational Health Sciences IST, rue du Bugnon 19, 1005 Lausanne, Switzerland bSoftware Engineering Laboratory, Swiss Institute of Technology, Lausanne, Switzerland Abstract This paper will discuss the current uses and application perspectives of Petri Nets (PNs) in the ﬁelds of risk analysis and accident modelling. Severe time and combinatory limitations are encountered when trying to model complex events sequences with classical methods. Due to their large calculation capabilities and the development of recent tools, the PNs should be able to overcome these limitations. We will ﬁrst review and brieﬂy discuss the previous applications of PNs in the ﬁeld of safety. The second aim of this paper is also to highlight the tool’s cap- abilities through a ‘‘translation’’ catalogue in which common concepts in safety are expressed in the PNs formalism. Despite these promising examples and properties, safety oriented applications in the ﬁeld of safety are still scarce. The lack of comprehensive tools available and P Ninherent complexity may explain this situation. We can hope that the increasing attrac- tiveness of PNs may somehow overcome these diﬃculties. As a matter of fact, due to the tool continuous development (i.e. recent stochastic reward net or object-oriented nets develop- ment), PNs may play a signiﬁcant role in risk analysis or accident modelling in the future. # 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction