宏观经济学 菲利普斯曲线ppt 英文版.pptVIP

The Phillips Curve and Expectations Theory About A.W. Phillips In 1958, Australian economist A.W. Phillips of the London School of Economics plotted data on unemployment rates and the rate of change in wage rates between 1861 and 1957 in the United Kingdom. The Phillips Curve Phillips curve A curve showing an inverse relationship between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate. The Phillips Curve The Inflation rate of America in 1958-1969 The Inflation and Unemployment of America in 1970-1988 Variation By the early 1970s, the Phillips curve was becoming a “has-been”. The Long-Run Phillips Curve The Long-Run Phillips Curve Adaptive Expectations Theory Adaptive expectations theory The concept that people believe the best indicator of the future is recent information. As a result, people persistently underestimate inflation when it is accelerating and overestimate it while it is slowing down. Misery Index In 1970,American economists Oaken Published the Misery index. Using it to express beastly economic position. The method calculating the Misery index is that misery is equal the sum of the employment rate and inflation rate. On the basis of the representation of Philips curve, when the economy is in order, there is a approximate alternative relationship. When one of them has a change, it can’t seemly reflect the condition of misery at the people. If they both increase, then it will reflect the misery index which is related to the public. Misery Index 关于失业率 中国人力资源和社会保障部周五(10月22日)表示，截至第三季度末，城镇登记失业率为4.1%，比第二季度末下滑0.1个百分点。 　　人保部在第三季度新闻发布会上公布的数据显示，截至第三季度末，全国城镇登记失业人数905万人，比第二季度末减少6万人。 　　此外，1-9月全国城镇新增就业931万人，完成全年900万人目标的103%；全国下岗失业人员再就业440万人，完成全年500万人目标的88%；就业困难人员实现就业126万人，完成全年目标100万人的126%。 　　中国国务院总理温家宝在今年两会期间的政府工作报告中提出，2010年城镇登记失业率目标4.6%以内。 1. 专家:中国不会恶性通胀 当前不需实行全面紧缩 在上海日前举行的“2010中国经济论坛：面临转折的中国经济”上，多位专家、学者把脉中国经济，普遍对未来发展充满信心。中国经济体制改革研究会副会长樊纲、国家信息中心预测部主任范剑平等均指出，中国不会出现恶性通货膨胀趋势。