《基于流域总降水高分辨估计的暴雨灾害风险评估 Disaster Risk Assessment of Rainstorm Based on High Resolution Estimation for Basin Total Precipitation》.pdfVIP

ofAnhui 责任编辑黄小燕责任校对李岩 安徽农业科学，Journal igri．Sci．2013，41(32)：12651—12655，12689 基于流域总降水高分辨估计的暴雨灾害风险评估 ‘ 张雅斌1，刘安麟2，曲静3 (1．陕西省气象台，陕西西安710014；2。陕西省气象局，陕西西安710014；3．陕西省西安市气象台，陕西西安710016) 摘要提出了基于新一代多普勒天气雷达和自动气象站资料的流域总降水高分辨估计方法，结合灾情定量指标计算和水文资料，对 2011年西安世园会期间陕西3次暴雨过程影响地区灾害风险进行了评估分祈。结果表明，汉江上游流域是陕南灾害预警重点地区，流 域内过程总降水明显增大是引发陕南次生灾害的主要因素；汉江上游和下游流域同时出现较大总降水时，由于上游降水对下游水文地 质灾害的重叠效应和下游水情对上游自然排洪能力的影响，相关地市灾情将有所加重；同时，降水随时间的不均匀性和突发性也是引发 灾害的重要因素。 关键词暴雨；流域总降水；高分辨估计；灾害风险评估；陕西 中图分类号S161．6文献标识码A 文章编号0517—6611(2013)32—12651—05 DisastermskAssessmentofRainstogmBasedon ResolutionEstimationforBasinTotm High Precipitafion ZHANGYa．binetal 7 (ShaanxiMeteorologicalObservatory，Xi’all，Shaanxi10014) AbstractThe estimationmethodforbasintotal NEXRADandautomatedobservationstationswas combi— ioint precipitationby proposed，and disasterriskswereassessedthe201l Xi’anWorldGarden disasterjndexand rainstorm ningquantitative hydrologyanalysis．regional during inShaanxiProvince．Theshowedthat of BasiniSthe areato forsouthernShaanxidisaster Expo results upstreamHanjiang key earlywarning and oftotal isthemainfactortodisastersinsouthernShaanxi．netotal fallen apparentenlargementprecipitation happen large precipitation in anddownstreamof tothe of onthe simultaneouslyupstream HanjiangBasin，dueoverlapaggravatingimpactupstIeamstrongprecipitation downstreamflooddisasterandthe effectofdownstreamwateronnatural of at River．willincrease negative dminagecapacityups