HowILearnedtoStopWorryingandLovetheImminent.ppt

How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The Imminent Internet SingularityOr: Why right now may be the best possible time to be an Internet technologist Gary William Flake Microsoft Live Labs Outline For Today Internet Singularity Why right now is the best time in the history of the universe to be an Internet technologist Introducing Live Labs A partnership between Microsoft Research and Windows/Windows Live Back Story Singularity: The idea that the exponential speedof technological improvements will produce super-human capabilities, making the future completely unknowable Introduced by Vernor Vinge, in 1993 Evangelized by Ray Kurzweil in multiple books Name purposely suggests black hole event horizon Primary causes cited as the realization of true AI and nanotechnology, yielding asymptotic upper limits of intelligence, power, and ability to manipulate reality Corollary: Human society will end as we know it Talked about in both optimistic and pessimistic terms Multiple Paths To The Singularity The Internet Singularity Loosely defined: The idea that a deeper andtighter coupling between the online and offline worlds will accelerate science, business, society, and self-actualization Coined by me. Also called the “Baby Singularity” Primary cause is claimed to be ubiquitous computing, democratization of computing resources, and iterative processes of creation and discovery becoming continuous Corollary: The increased pace of discovery will fuel amazing innovations in the near future Will completely reshape society as we know it A kinder and gentler singularity. Very optimistic statement Making The Case In Four Steps Democratization and “macro-ization” Power law distributions and “long tails” Internet ecosystems and network effects The Innovators’ Dilemma (1/4) DemocratizationAnd “Macro-ization” Personal and business computing Greater availability of raw CPU power Today’s desktop Yesterday’s super computer Tomorrow’s cell phone Today’s desktop Greater availab