黑龙江省高速公交通事故多元统计分析.pdfVIP

Study on Expressway Traffic Accident Causation in Heilongjiang Province Based on Multivariate Analysis A Dissertation Submitted for the Degree of Master Candidate: Hao Yucong Supervisor: Prof. Wang Xuancang Chang’an University, Xi’an, China 摘 要 高速公路交通安全是一个严重的问题，黑龙江高速公路交通安全状况不容乐观， 也给黑龙江省的经济造成严重损失。通过分析对比黑龙江省交通安全状况及国内外研 究状况，提出合理的交通安全对策，最大限度地预防和减少交通事故的发生。 本文就是针对这种现状，引黑龙江省 2003～2009 年共七年的高速公路交通事故四 项统计数据，首先对黑龙江 目前的交通事故特征进行了总结和阐述，揭示了交通事故 时间、空间、事故形态以及死亡人员的年龄和类型分布规律；其次从人、车、路及环 境四方面对事故成因进行了统计分析，阐述了各影响因素与交通事故的关系；最后运 用多元分析对黑龙江高速交通安全状况进行分析，找出主要指标来反映高速公路在时 间、空间上的分布特征，有助于掌握黑龙江高速交通安全状况，以便于采取相应的防 治措施。 关键词：黑龙江；高速公路；事故分布规律；事故成因；多元分析 I ABSTRACT The issue of freeway traffic safety is serious. The condition of Heilongjiang highway traffic safety is unoptimistic and it also creates the heavy loss for Heilongjiang Provinces economy. This paper proposes some reasonable traffic safety countermeasures by contrasting the condition of traffic safety in Heilongjiang Province and the domestic and that of foreign research through the analysis so that it prevents and reduces traffic accidents occurrence. Along with the unceasing increase of vehicles, the situation for highway traffic safety will be very stern. This paper aims at present situation, incoming seven years’ statistical data concerning with highway traffic accidents in Heilongjiang Province from 2003 to 2009. First it has carried on the summary and elaboration to the present traffic accident characteristic in Heilongjiang，which has promulgated the time of traffic accidents, the spatial, the accident shape as well as the distributed rule for the age and the type of death