2020年河南省煤炭供需平衡研究.pdfVIP

第 卷 第 期 21 6 电 力 技 术 经 济 Vol．21 No． 6 电力供需分析 年 月 Electric Power Technologic Economics 2009 12 Dec． 2009 第6 期 文章编号：1008-1682(2009)06-0031-05 2020 年河南省煤炭供需平衡研究 白宏坤， 李干生 （河南省电力勘测设计院，河南%% 郑州%%450007） 摘 要：以能源发展与河南省经济发展相适应为前提，在电力需求预测的基础上，对全省煤炭需求进行分析预测，得出煤 炭仍是河南省的主要能源、电煤是拉动煤炭消费增长主要因素的结论。通过对全省煤炭行业发展的预测分析，进行全省 煤炭供需平衡研究，得出远期河南省煤炭不能自身平衡的结论。提出河南省应合理有序开发煤炭，稳定煤炭产量；调整 能源消费结构和电源结构，降低对煤炭的依存度；输煤输电并举，增强河南省能源供应保障水平。 关键词：煤炭供需平衡；能源需求预测；能源消费弹性系数；主要耗煤部门预测；电力需求 中图分类号： TM714 ；F206 文献标志码： A Study on Coal Supply-Demand Balance in Henan Province in 2020 BAI Hong-kun, LI Gan-sheng （Henan Electric Power Survey Design Institute, Zhengzhou 450007, China ） Abstract : On the premise that the energy development must fit in with the economic development in Henan province, based on the electricity demand forecast, this paper presents a thorough study on the coal demand of the province with the conclusion that coal is still the major energy source and the coal for power generation is a major factor driving the growth of the coal consumption in Henan. Through the analysis and forecast of the coal industry development in Henan, the paper studies the supply-demand balance, concluding that the coal resource in Henan will not be able to meet the future demand within the province. Finally it proposes that the coal resource should be exploited in a reasonable and orderly way with a stable and sustained coal production; that energy consumption structure and electric power generation structure should be adjusted to reduce dependence on coal; and that emph