江苏省煤炭消费现状及_十二五_需求组合预测.pdfVIP

1 2 2 吴文锋 周梅华 刘满芝 ( 1 中国矿业大学管理学院文昌校区, 江苏省徐州市, 221008; 2 中国矿业大学管理学院南湖校区, 江苏省徐州市, 221116) 对现 煤炭需求预测研究进行了文献综述, 分析了不同预测方法的优缺点在 对江苏近十年煤炭消费状况分析的基础上, 选用了A RIMA 模型等预测方法对江苏省 十二 五 期间煤炭需求量进行了预测分析, 旨在为相关部门决策作参考组合预测结果为江苏省 2011 年煤炭需求量为2294827 万t, 2015 年需求量为2797462 万t ARIM A 模型 江苏省 十二五 煤炭消费 需求预测 F427 A Analysis of coal consumption in Ji angsu and the demand forecasting during the 12th FiveYearPlan based on combination models 1 2 2 Wu Wenf eng , Zhou M eihua , Liu M an hi ( 1 School of M anag erment , China U niversit y of M ining and T echnology, X u hou, Jiangsu 22 1008, China; 2School of M anag erment, China Univer sity of M ining and T echnology, Xu hou, Jiang su 22 1116, China) Abstract This ar ticle m akes a literature review for ex isting coal dem and forecast, and analy sises of the merits and dem erits of different forecasting metho dsThen, based on the analy sis of Jiang su coal consum ption in recent decade, I selected ARIMA models et cetera to forecast the coal demand of Jiang su Pr ovince during the tw elfth FiveYearPlan, aim ed at providing r ef er enced de cision making for the relev ant departm ents Forecasting the co al demand of Jiang su is 229482700 tons in 2011, and 279746200 tons in 2015 Key words ARIMA m odels, Jiang su, 12th Fiv eYearPlan, coal consumption, demand fore cast 2009 1 6328% , 598% , , , ,