进出口贸易与我国经济增长关系统计分析.pdfVIP

摘要 自 2007 年以来，由美国次贷危机引起的全球金融危机的不断蔓延和深化，致使世界 经济呈现出明显的下滑趋势，对中国进出口问题的影响也日益明显。发现中国进出口贸易 中存在的问题，并根据这些问题，提出相对应的政策措施是一个值得研究的课题。 本文利用 SPSS19.0 软件对中国 1990-2011 年的进口、出口、净出口额和国内生产总 值（GDP）做了一元线性回归分析，发现国内生产总值与进口、出口额，即进出口总额之 间的相关性较强；然后又用到计量经济学的方法，利用eviews6.0 软件对GDP 与进出口总 额两时间序列做单位根检验、协整检验、Granger 因果检验及脉冲函数分析、方差分解分 析，得到结论：进出口总额是GDP 的Granger 原因，而GDP 不是进出口贸易的Granger 原 因；接着又利用SPSS19.0 统计软件作图功能对我国2011 及2010 年的对外贸易商品分类 金额做了简单箱图和堆栈面积图，比较直观的分析了我国当前的产业结构。最后对发展我 国进出口贸易和经济增长提出建议及对策。 关键词：国内生产总值 线性回归 Granger 因果检验 进出口贸易 单位根 检验 i 万方数据 Abstract Since early 2007,the global financial crisis caused by the U.S. Sub - loan crisis continues to spread and deepen, which leads to a clear downward trend of the world economy. The impact on the imports and exports of our country are increasingly exposed. It is worth o f studying the problems in China ’s import and export trade, and proposing corresponding countermeasures to solve these problems. The purpose of this paper is to find out the relationship of China’s imports, exports, net exports and GDP between 1990 and 2011. The SPSS19.0 was used to fit all the data in a simple linear regression model, from which it found strong correlation between the GDP and exports and imports. Besides that econometric methods were used, involving unite root test, co-integration test, granger causality test, impulse function analysis, variance decomposition analysis and so on. All the tests indicated that aggregate amount of imports and exports is the Granger cause of the GDP, while GDP is not the Granger cause of imports and exports. Moreover, dealing with the amount of exports goods category, it drawn box plot and stack area chart to make the data more visualized, and it analyzed the industrial structure. Finally some recommendations on China’s economics development and foreign trade were made. Key words: GDP; linear regression; granger causa