陈春良-crimeandpunishmentthestoryofchinesestrikehard.pptVIP

* Crime and Punishment: the Story of Chinese Strike hard 陈春良 博士 浙江工商大学公共管理学院 清华大学公共管理学院 With Isaac Ehrlich and Zhiqiang Liu 浙江大学法学院双周论坛 outline 写在前面：犯罪经济学 研究动机 文献 严打：背景与典型事实 数据 结论和讨论 写在前面 犯罪经济学 Becker（1968） 理性选择框架中的犯罪与惩罚 写在前面 预期效用最大化问题 Ehrlich（1973）：加入市场、时间配置，犯罪的潜在收益与机会成本 一阶条件： 写在前面 内点解 角点解 犯罪-劳动时间配置模型：刑罚威慑、犯罪激励 Motivation 刑罚威慑是犯罪经济学研究最重要主题 需要估计刑罚威慑弹性：惩罚概率、严厉程度 执法变量和犯罪率之间的共时决定问题使得威慑效应被低估 需要外生的冲击，构造威慑变量的外生变化，用以估计刑罚威慑效应 惩罚概率的讨论和一致性较好，但是严厉程度存在争议（威慑？、能力剥夺？） Literature 惩罚严厉程度与犯罪1：监禁 Levitt（1996）、Levitt (1998)、Katz et al (2003) Chen and Shapiro (2007)、Owens (2009)、Maurin and Ouss (2009)、Drago et al (2009)、Paolo Buonanno and Steven Raphael（2013） 反对：Lee and McCray (2009) 惩罚严厉程度与犯罪2：三犯出局(Three strike) Kessler and Levitt (1998)、Zimring et al (2001), Shepherd(2002), and Helland Tabarrok (2007) （和严打不同，我们的创新） 严打与中国转型期刑事犯罪问题： 严打：Bakken(1993, 2005a, b) 、Harrod Tanner (1999)、Scott Tanner (2005)、Trevaskes (2005, 2007, 2010) 中国犯罪：Bin Liang (2005) 、Jianhong Liu (2007)、Leana et al（2013） Crime, Punishment and Strike Hard in China Yanda, by far the most debatable public policy regarding crime and punishment in China. Up till now, there are four nation-wide strike hard, launched respectively at 1983, 1996, 2001 and the very latest June 2010. The first one initiated in August, 1983, and lasting the next three years to 1986, most influential, worst criticized, deemed a great success by Chinese public security sector, and viewed as a good but less-welcome story for deterrence. Strike Hard: Backgrounds and Stylized Facts Typical features of 1983 strike hard: Exogenous temporary shock (fixed three years) Severity increased almost for all categories of crimes Even weaker procedure protection, quick sentence, speedy trial Wide use of capital punishment Spot execution and public trials Strike Hard: Backgrounds and Stylized Facts---continued Two official documents by standing committee of NPC on Sep.2nd, 1983 In practice, stories and evidence of severity increase could be fo