ThedangersofarisingChina.docVIP

The?dangers?of?a?rising?China China?and?America?are?bound?to?be?rivals,?but?they?do?not?have?to?be?antagonists Dec?2nd?2010 查看原图 TOWARDS?the?end?of?2003?and?early?in?2004?China’s?most?senior?leaders?put?aside?the?routine?of?governing?1.3?billion?people?to?spend?a?couple?of?afternoons?studying?the?rise?of?great?powers.?You?can?imagine?history’s?grim?inventory?of?war?and?destruction?being?laid?out?before?them?as?they?examined?how,?from?the?15th?century,?empires?and?upstarts?had?often?fought?for?supremacy.?And?you?can?imagine?them?moving?on?to?the?real?subject?of?their?inquiry:?whether?China?will?be?able?to?take?its?place?at?the?top?without?anyone?resorting?to?arms. In?many?ways?China?has?made?efforts?to?try?to?reassure?an?anxious?world.?It?has?repeatedly?promised?that?it?means?only?peace.?It?has?spent?freely?on?aid?and?investment,?settled?border?disputes?with?its?neighbours?and?rolled?up?its?sleeves?in?UN?peacekeeping?forces?and?international?organisations.?When?North?Korea?shelled?a?South?Korean?island?last?month?China?did?at?least?try?to?create?a?framework?to?rein?in?its?neighbour. But?reasonable?China?sometimes?gives?way?to?aggressive?China.?In?March,?when?the?North?sank?a?South?Korean?warship,?killing?46?sailors,?China?failed?to?issue?any?condemnation.?A?few?months?later?it?fell?out?with?Japan?over?some?Chinese?fishermen,?arrested?for?ramming?Japanese?coastguard?vessels?around?some?disputed?islands—and?then?it?locked?up?some?Japanese?businessmen?and?withheld?exports?of?rare?earths?vital?for?Japanese?industry.?And?it?has?forcefully?reasserted?its?claim?to?the?Spratly?and?Paracel?Islands?and?to?sovereignty?over?virtually?the?entire?South?China?Sea. As?the?Chinese?leaders’?history?lesson?will?have?told?them,?the?relationship?that?determines?whether?the?world?is?at?peace?or?at?war?is?that?between?pairs?of?great?powers.?Sometimes,?as?with?Britain?and?America,?it?goes?well.?Sometimes,?as?between?Britain?and?Germany,?it?does?not. So?far,?things?have?gone?remarkably?well