SRA Modelling (INRO presentation 280904)ppt.pptVIP

Michael Hayes Strategic Rail Authority Transport Modelling Manager This Presentation SRA transport modelling Current model development Future model development Current EMME/2 problems SRA transport modelling The Strategic Rail Authority SRA is responsible for planning the development of the UK rail network in a multi-modal context. Interactions with local transport authorities in major cities, especially London. Extensive private sector involvement, with interactions involving revenues, track access charges and subsidy / premium payments. Sections of the UK rail network are congested, immense pressure to make best use of capacity. SRA transport modelling Key modelling challenges: Crowding, especially on commuter lines into London some lines running at 150% of capacity . Reliability, both at train and at passenger levels. Critical examination of the value of individual rail services where capacity is at a premium. In certain areas, interaction of rail network demand with station interchange and crowding – several stations have to be closed to avoid overcrowding. SRA transport modelling Passenger demand forecasting models: PLANET North / South models PLANET Strategic model MOIRA PLATO Reliability models: Merit Railsys / Vision SRA transport modelling PLANET North / South. Morning and inter-peak models for North and South of country, concentrating on short distance movements into urban centres. Frequency based EMME/2 model. Own mode elasticities to generalised journey time. Crowding based on factoring in-vehicle time. Takes around 2 hours to run a test. SRA transport modelling PLANET Strategic Model All day model for the UK, including road and air movements. Designed for longer distance movements over about 80km Frequency based EMME/2 model. Full mode choice procedures. Crowding based on factoring in-vehicle time. Takes around 2 hours to run a test. SRA transport modelling MOIRA Covers all UK rail network ten separate submodels Full representation of all