于菲-20121204011056-外汇储备增长对通货膨胀影响的实证解析.doc

毕 业 论 文 学生姓名： 于菲 学 号： 座机电话号码011056 系别班级： 国际教育学院12级金融本科班 专业（方向 ： 金融学 题 目： 外汇储备增长对通货膨胀影响的实证 —基于1996-2014年月度数据的分析 指导者： 史雪娜 副教授 评阅者： 姓 名 专业技术职务 2015 年 10 月 25 日 毕业论文中文摘要 外汇储备增长对通货膨胀影响的实证研究 —基于1996-2014年月度数据的分析 摘要： 近年来，随着国际贸易的不断深入开展，我国外汇储备增长迅速，国内消费者物价指数也呈现出上升的态势。本文从外汇储备的角度出发，通过文献资料的分析研究，并基于1996年1月-2014年12月我国外汇储备、居民消费物价指数以及货币供应量的月度数据，利用Eviews7.0软件进行实证研究，通过格兰杰因果检验发现，我国外汇储备,居民消费者物价指数以及货币供应量三者之间存在长期均衡关系。此结论对我国宏观调控经济运行具有理论意义，对通过管控我国外汇储备影响国内通货膨胀水平具有现实意义。依此结论，我国应该改革已有的外汇管理机制，实现“藏汇于民”，改善外汇储备结构，防止单一外汇对我国币值产生冲击，稳定国内物价水平。 关键词：外汇储备 通货膨胀 货币供应量 格兰杰因果检验 毕业论文外文摘要 Title An Empirical Study on The Impact of Foreign Exchange Reserve Growth on Inflation ---- Analysis Based on Data from 1995 to 2014 Monthly Abstract In recent years, with the continuous development of international trade, Chinas foreign exchange reserves increased rapidly, the domestic consumer price index also showed a rising trend. This paper from the perspective of foreign exchange reserves, through literature analysis and January 1996 to December 2014 in Chinas foreign exchange reserves based on, consumer price index and money supply amount of monthly data, using software eviews7.0 empirical research, through the Granger causality test, Chinas foreign exchange reserves, among the consumer price index CPI and the amount of money supply exist long-run equilibrium relationship.? This conclusion has theoretical significance for the economic operation of macro control in our country, and it has practical significance to influence the domestic inflation level through controlling the foreign exchange reserves. According to the conclusion, our country should reform the existing foreign exchange management mechanism, to realize that storing foreign exchange to the people, improve structure of foreign exchange reserve, to prevent the impact of a single foreign exchange of Chinas currency, the domestic price level stability.? Keywords: foreign exchange reserves ; inflation ; M2 ; granger causality te