100505117_刘操_供应链环境下CPFR在需求预测中应用分析.doc

郑州航空工业管理学院 毕 业 论 文（设 计） 201 届 专业 班 姓 名 刘 操 学号 100505117 指导教师 罗学文 职称 讲 师 二О 年 月 日 内 容 摘 要 对于任何一位管理者来说，对未来市场情况的预测和判断是必要的。一个好的预测会给供应链带来丰厚的利润，而糟糕的预测会给供应链带来大麻烦。随着经济的快速发展和经济全球化的趋势，商品结构越来越复杂，人们的需求也在发生变化，市场环境由单一的静止状态转化为复杂的多样化动态，进而供应链管理中存在了各种的诸多问题。 供应链环境下的需求预测也逐步变得复杂，更加注重对市场的统筹兼顾，进而演化出来了一套供应链的概念，其实质就是对市场的统筹兼顾，需求预测是市场企业中占主导地位，是市场企业的根本，正确的预测，可以为企业带来良好的收益。 本文主要是从供应链的角度出发，结合其理论基础，需求预测和协同理论相结合，首先对供应链环境下需求预测的特点及其影响进行系统分析和了解，建立定量和定性相结合的供应链环境下的需要预测体系方法，然后对建立的需求预测体系再从定量预测优化，定性预测和预测支持系统优化进行全方面的调查，最后结合摩托罗拉进行了实证分析，分析结论，需要预测在手机行业有重要作用。 关键词： 供应链管理、需求预测、CPFR 体系优化、举例分析 SupplyChain CPFR demand forecasting application analysis Author : liucao Tutor: luoxuewen Summary For any one managers, prediction of future market conditions and judgments are necessary. a good forecast will bring huge profits Supply Chain, the worst forecasts of supply chain will bring big trouble. with the development of the economy and economic globalization, commodity structure more complex, peoples needs are going to change, single market into the stationary state of the diverse and dynamic complex, further demand forecasting supply chain management market presence deviation, bullwhip effect serious, high inventory costs，low level of service many problems。 Forecast supply chain environment has gradually turned to market demand management，more emphasis on the actual market situation grasp and understanding，thus evolved a set of supply chain concepts，Its essence is balanced on the market，supply chain management forecast is an important part of，is the source and foundation of supply chain management，correct predictions，can reduce business losses on strategy，enhanced supply chain service levels and economic This article is from the perspective of the supply chain，combined with its theoretical，demand forecasting and coordination theory.First, demand forecasting supply chain environment is characterized by a systematic analysis of their impac