Developing a High Quality Baseline World Bank开发高质量的基线世界银行.pptVIP

Developing a High Quality Baseline Salimah Samji Mona Sur World Bank, New Delhi June 21, 2006 Overview What is a baseline? Why you should care The phases of conducting a baseline The errors to avoid in each phase How to manage the common errors Elements of a baseline survey (TOR) What is a baseline? Fixing the time at the base – a benchmark from which you measure progress Snapshot of indicators at a time Instrument used to: Test hypotheses of project (assess results) Planning (refine targeting, indicators to monitor) Why you should care … To identify whether there were any benefits for the investments made Were objectives met? What factors explain the result? How can the program be improved? Compare alternative models to get the biggest bang for your buck To inform next generation projects Evidence-based policy making – demonstration effect for government The phases of conducting a baseline Design Implementation – actual survey Data entry and analysis Report writing Phase 1: Design Phase P1: Check-list Clear objectives (what is the problem?) Clear idea of how you will achieve the objectives (causal chain or hypotheses) Clear and measurable indicators Clear (precise and unambiguous) Relevant (to objectives) Monitorable Example of a causal chain P1: Check-list (cont’d) Design survey instrument – keep it simple and related to the objectives and hypotheses you want to test Link surveys to GIS – use consistent units Select controls/counterfactuals to attribute change (causality) Timing of baseline Before project (what if project never materializes)? 2 years into the project (intervention has begun)? Other factors (seasonality) P1: Check-list (cont’d) Sampling strategy Random allows inferences about a population Random Stratified random (include groups which could be excluded) Non-random – use a group smaller than the population Introduces selection bias. Note: every stratification introduces a level of bias. P1: Check-list (cont’d) Over sample for attriti