Development with Alternative Strategic Options A 发展与替代战略选择.pptVIP

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Development with Alternative Strategic Options A 发展与替代战略选择.ppt

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The East Asian Experience ofEconomic Development and Cooperation Kenichi Ohno National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies Background Polarization of the developing world into high and low performers East Asia as a high performing region --Diversity in size, income, culture, etc. --Failures and bad periods also existed --But high growth was sustained in most countries and over the long run Graph: GDP in EA vs Africa Graph: growth over time Graph: size comparison Graph: wars and conflicts 　 East Asian Development Growth driven by trade and investment Collective growth, not isolated or random Staggered participation in regional production network Region as an enabling environment for catching up (model and pressure) “Asian Dynamism” Geographic diffusion of industrialization Within each country, industrialization proceeds from low-tech to high-tech Also known as the Flying Geese Pattern Clear order and structure (with a possibility of re-formation) Flying Geese 1 Flying Geese 2 Flying Geese 3 Graph: per capita income Graph: manufactured exports The Role of Government In low-income or transition economies with undeveloped markets, privatization and free trade alone may not lead to prosperity Unregulated markets may be unstable and polarize income (domestically and globally) Escape from the vicious circle of low income, low saving and low productivity Factors often cited: not true causes High level of education Export promotion High savings and investment Income equality and shared growth Good government-business relationship “Selective intervention” These are tools needed to join the regional production network, which each country must prepare Basic Roles of East Asian States Political stability and social integration (precondition for development) Task 1: Create a competitive market economy Task 2: Initiate and manage global integration Task 3: Cope with negative aspects of growth (emerging income gaps, congestion, pollution, corruption, etc.) Authoritarian