Effects of Crop Insurance and Government Payments 农作物保险和政府支付的影响.pptVIP

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Effects of Crop Insurance and Government Payments 农作物保险和政府支付的影响.ppt

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Effects of Crop Insurance and Government Payments on Annual Financial Risk Bruce A. Babcock Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Presented March 8, 2005 Talk Outline How are option premiums determined? Effects of hedges, puts, and insurance on risk How do commodity programs affect risk? How much risk is left over to reward management? Discussion Structure of Program Paymentsfor Corn Reduced Risk With no insurance or government programs: Average return over variable cost = $117/ac 5.2% probability of not covering $180 variable cost With all government programs and insurance: Average returns over variable cost = $207/ac 5.9% probability that returns are less than $117/ac Costs of Benefits of Crop Insurance Decisions What product to buy? APH, RA, RA-HPO, CRC, GRP, GRIP, GRIP-HRO What coverage level to buy? CAT, 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, 85% What unit structure to use? (optional, basic, enterprise, whole-farm) Effects of Coverage and Unit Structure on Premium Expected rate of return to changing unit structure Distribution of Returns by Unit Structure GRIP and GRIP-HRO GRIP guarantee = Factor*CBOT Springtime Price*Expected County Yield GRIP-HRO guarantee = Factor*CBOT Fall or Spring Price*Expected County Yield Factor lies between 0.6 and 1.5. Who Should Buy GRIP? Farmers who do not have a representative APH yield Farmers who are lower risk than that assumed in APH program Farmers with yields that are highly correlated with county yields GRIP and GRIP-HRO in Poweshiek County (Expected Yield = 154.9 bu/ac) Payoff from GRIP and GRIP-HRO Total payout = 6.2% of liability for GRIP and 7.6% of liability for HRO from 1975 to 2004. Premium rate = 5.84% of liability from GRIP and 8.55% of liability from GRIP-HRO. Since 1975, rate of return = 6% for GRIP and -12%% for HRO. Subsidized rate of return for GRIP and GRIP-HRO 2005 Premium = $14/acre for GRIP and $21 for GRIP-HRO Expected Payout from 1975 to 2004: $34 for GRIP and $42 for HRO Expected Payout from 1957 t