昆明地区降水、气温及极端天气的.docVIP

昆明地区降水、气温及极端天气的 　　摘要：利用昆明气象站1951年-2013年逐日气温和降水资料，采用线性趋势、Sen 斜率估计、MannKendall 等方法分析昆明降水、气温和极端天气的变化特征与趋势，结果表明：1951年-2013年间，1994是年平均气温突变点；年平均气温和四季气温均呈升温趋势；年降水量和夏、秋两季降水量呈下降趋势，春、冬两季降水呈上升趋势，但趋势并不显著；在极端降水指数中，持续湿期呈下降趋势，持续干期和一日最大降水量呈上升趋势，趋势并不显著；在极端温度指数中，热日持续指数、暖夜指数及暖昼指数均呈显著上升趋势，冷日持续指数、冷夜指数及冷日指数均呈显著下降趋势。 　　关键词：昆明；降水；气温；极端天气；变化趋势 　　中图分类号：P426文献标志码：A文章编号2016 　　Longterm trend analysis of precipitation，temperature and extreme weather in Kunming 　　YANG Rong1，WANG Long1，SHEN Guanzheng1，WANG Ying1，WANG Lin2 　　（1.College of Water Resources，Yunnan Agricultural University，Kunming 650201，China；2.Yunnan Forestry Technological College，Kunming 650224，China） 　　Abstract：Based on the daily temperature and precipitation data of Kunming meteorological station inthe author used methods of linear trend，Sen slope estimation，MannKendall methods to analyze the characteristics and trends of precipitation，temperature and extreme weather in Kunming.The results showed that，from 1951 to 2013，the average temperature mutation took place in 1994；Annual average temperature and the temperature of the four seasons showed a tendency of warming.Besides，it showed a decreasing trend in annual precipitation，summer rainfall and autumn rainfall，while spring rainfall and winter rainfall showed an upward trend，but the trend was not significant；In the extreme precipitation index，Consecutive wet days showed a downward trend，consecutive dry days and maximum 1day precipitation amount had a upward trend，but the trend was not significant.In the extreme temperature index，Warm spell duration indicator，Warm nights and Warm days increased significantly，while cold spell duration indicator，cool nights and cool days reduced significantly. 　　Key words：Kunming；precipitation；temperature；extreme weather；variation trend 　　20世纪以来，全球气候以变暖为主要特征在发生显著变化 [13]，在气候变暖的背景下，我国极端天气事件频率也明显增多[45]，极端天气事件对自然和社会造成了严重影响[68]，受到了越来越多的关注：如周雅清等[9]利用446个气象站1956年-2008年共53年的日最高、最低气温资料，分析了我国大陆地区气温极端事件的变化规律；王琼，张明军等[10]利用线