Oil The Great Prize faculty“伟大的奖”教师.washington.pptVIP

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Oil The Great Prize faculty“伟大的奖”教师.washington.ppt

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Oil The Great Prize faculty“伟大的奖”教师.washington

ENVIR 100 Lec. 17 * * * ENVIR 100 Lec. 17 Energy: Petrol Politics Patterns of consumption Oil and war Peak Oil Energy Return on Investment Embodied energy * /railsback/1122main.html ENVIR 100 Lec. 17 * The glue of the global economy U.S. led petroleum economy (1859) 5% population, uses 25% world’s oil “The American way of life” Per capita oil use 5 x world per capita consumption 80 x sub-Saharan Africa Efficiency Japan W. Europe use ? as much/unit of GDP ENVIR 100 Lec. 17 * Oil and War Post WWI: Mideast oil rights to “7 sisters” WW2 Cold War: U.S. surrogate policy” Militarized Middle East Islamic extremism U.S. military presence U.S. wars since 2001 /en/ * The Food/Oil Connection ENVIR 100 Lec. 17 * “Peak Oil” Hubbert’s Peak: production peaks when half the oil is extracted Accurately predicted U.S. peak (1970) in 1956 Depends upon estimate of reserves Colin Campbell, Shell Production has outrun discovery for 30 years 1.8 trillion barrels reserves 2005-07 peak USGS (2008): 3 trillion barrels 2030 ENVIR 100 Lec. 17 * Rising Cost of Oil $10/barrel (1998); $150 (2006); $80 today IEA Peak Oil Predictions 2008: 2030 2009: 2020 2010: 2007 ENVIR 100 Lec. 17 * Energy Return on Investment (EROI) Petroleum 1900 ~ 100:1 2012 ~ 18:1 Coal 1930 ~ 80:1 2010 ~ 20:1 “Clean coal” ~ 5:1 Hydroelectric Can be as high as 250:1 Solar 15:1 – varies enormously Embodied energy * /images/graphics/other/EmbodiedEnergyBuildingMaterials.gif * http://www.building.co.uk/Journals/Graphic/e/g/k/onekingdonst.gif POLS 384 Lec. 13 * “Normal Accidents” * * GDP growth directly correlates to oil use 87 MBD in 2008, 82 MBD in 2012 90% of reserves in 14 countries 2/3 reserves in Persian Gulf * * *