RD as Greenhouse Insurance温室气体的研发.pptVIP

Optimal Technology RD in the Face of Climate Uncertainty Erin Baker University of Massachusetts, Amherst Today’s Talk Background on Climate Change How to model RD programs in top-down models? Theoretical results indicate that How RD is modeled matters, and How increasing risk is modeled matters. Results and insights from numerical model. Including uncertainty in the returns from RD Climate Change Humans are changing the climate, through the accumulation of greenhouse gasses (GHG). GHG are mainly emitted through the combustion of fossil fuels. Human Contributions to the Greenhouse Effect Carbon Emissions Due to Fossil Fuel Consumption 1860 -1985 Reference Carbon Projections Climate Change We have seen an increase of about 1°C over the last 100 years. A doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial levels would increase global average temperatures by about 1.5 – 4.5°C A 1.5°C rise would be warmest temperatures in last 6000 years. A 4.5°C rise would raise temperatures to those last seen in time of dinosaurs. Climate Change - Uncertainty 100 years is a blip in geologic time. Climate models are still in infancy. Regional climate impacts are highly uncertain. Human impacts of climate changes are uncertain. Potential for catastrophic damages Runaway greenhouse effect Failure of the Gulf stream Climate Change Uncertainty about how emissions today will cause damages tomorrow. But, we are learning more and more. Uncertainty, learning, and adaptation impact current decisions Conclusion: Uncertainty + Learning = less control of emissions. Kolstad Ulph Ulph Manne Richels Baker What about RD? RD planning is complicated by different programs Solar PVs versus efficiency of coal-fired electricity We consider optimal RD uncertainty and learning about climate damages choice of RD program How to represent RD? Climate change is a complex problem, involving multiple variables. In order to get insights about the best policy, we need a simple representation of alternative RD programs. What