RD and Development World Bank研发和发展世界银行.pptVIP

William F. Maloney World Bank Innovation in Latin America: Diagnosis and Questions Mexico, DF, July 2010 MEn Bottom quintile Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Top quintile Engineers in North America ~1900 Source: Maloney and Valencia (2010) Throughout LA, there was a lack of national innovative capacity Source: Maloney and Valencia (2010) Engineers and GDP/Capita ~1900 GDP/Capita (US$ ~1990) Engineers per each 100,000 workers Half of the GDP difference is represented by Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Source: Calderón, Fajnzylber and Loayza (2002) But this has been a problem for centuries: Peru and Mexico were among the richest countries in colonial times The allocation of natural resources is not to blame There is no curse: Sala i Martin et al. (2004), Lederman and Maloney (2007), Brunnschweiler (2009) and Nunn (2008) But we have had a relatively poor overall performance And we have not diversified the economy beyond the natural advantages we have Innovation Diagnoses: 3 Big Questions 1. Do we have an innovation problem or another distortion? The TFP is a measure of our ignorance, nothing more Allocation of production factors Micro rigidities that prevent the entry of more productive companies? Haltiwanger– poor allocation could reduce the EUs GDP by EU 40% Hsieh and Klenow (2007) India and Chile 35-60% more productive with a good allocation Allocation within the company (labor markets?) Chile– new restrictions cost .5% in annual growth Technological progress (innovation): knowledge accumulation. Source: Rodriguez and Maloney (2005) 2. Is it a question of knowledge accumulation or of accumulation in general? K/L RD and K/L RD Returns on RD vs. Distance to the Frontier: Complementary factors are key Distance to the economic frontier (z) Poor countries: low complementarity Medium income: imitator/innovative Advanced: innovative Source: Go?i, Lederman and Maloney (2008) Distance to the technological frontier 3. What kind of innovation is required? So