Requiem for Large Scale Models geog安魂曲的大尺度的地理模型。.ucsb.pptVIP

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Requiem for Large Scale Models geog安魂曲的大尺度的地理模型。.ucsb.ppt

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Requiem for Large Scale Models geog安魂曲的大尺度的地理模型。.ucsb

Requiem for Large Scale Models Douglass Lee, 1973 The Topic Large Scale Urban Models (LSUM’s) Urban Simulations on a broad scale Lee thought that (at the time) LSUM’s had several fundamental flaws Despite some of the successes LSUM’s had during this time period, Lee thought that, “like dinosaurs, [LSUMS] collapsed rather than evolved.” Must consider the time period… About Lee Professor at UC Berkeley Department of City and Regional Planning Dissertation dealt with LSUMS Wrote this article early on in his career (just 5 years after his dissertation was approved) Lee’s Preliminary Conclusions None of the goals for large scale models have been achieved and there is little reason the expect anything different in the future For each objective refered to as reason for building a model: there is either a better way of achieving the objective or a better objective Methods for long-range planning (specifically LSUMS) have to change if they are to have any influence in the long run The Seven Sins of LSUMs Lee introduces seven aspects of LSUMS that he argues are proof of his three conclusions Mostly, he wants to conclude that there are far better ways of “achieving objectives” than Large Scale Urban Models Hypercomprehensiveness Planning Methods of the time emphasized extremely comprehensive planning Result: the models were designed to replicate too complex a system in a single shot They were expected to serve too many purposes at a time Hungriness The amount of data that is needed for LSUMs of the time was staggering Example: San Francisco’s housing market simulation needed 15,000 items of data for a single run for a population of only 700,000 Grossness Given model hungriness, the models often sank under the weight of excessive data Too many goals for the models with too much data involved to be computationally tractable Lee: ironically, even though datasets were huge, models of the time did not provide enough detail to be useful to planners Wrong-headedness The deviati