论管理科学的“创新研究.ppt

论管理科学的“创新研究”;Outline 1 BRICE and new EEE EXAMPLES TEI@I Methodology Models for MS Development ;BRICE Behavior Risk/uncertainty Integration Culture Electronic ;E e-Organization / e-Government e-Commerce / e-Marketing e-Auctions / e-Bidding e-Logistics e-Negotiation e-Risk Management Mobile based Economic Simulation;new EE Energy Economics/Management Environmental Economics/Management Why? What? How? new EEE + eManagement;2 EXAMPLES Two Nobel Prize Laureates in Economic Science Rand Co. MADIS Gang Li ;Herbert A. Simon (1916-2001) ????????????????????? ;In 1957, Simon proposed the notion of Bounded Rationality: that property of an agent that behaves in a manner that is nearly optimal with respect to its goals as its resources will allow. Bounded rationality better describes agent behaviors than Andersons optimal rationality approach for the following reasons: agents are not optimal the methods by which architectural tasks are performed significantly affect the agents behaviors the representations of information and the strategies for solving problems must all be discovered by the agent agents behaviors across isomorphic task domains are not constant ;Bounded rationality ? completely rationality Satisfying solution ? optimal solution in decision making Knowledge limitation and learning “Artificial society” Artificial intelligence Thinking machine, 1955;Portfolio Selection;现代金融学的基点（风险度量、风险分散、有效前沿）;风险度量 带摩擦市场 带消费和生产 多期与连续时间 资本结构 跨市场 非独立性 考虑破产 etc.;Li-Ng Dynamic Programming Model (2000);Bankruptcy should be considered!;Zhu-Li-Wang Model with Bankruptcy Control (2004);;Rand Co.(兰德公司) Delphi Method Dynamic Programming Stochastic Programming etc. 至少8位Nobel经济科学奖获得者曾经在Rand长期工作过。 ;一、MADIS基本概况;一、MADIS基本概况(续1);Performance(1) 130-150 international journal papers / per year 100-120 of them are of Management/Economics Top journal papers!!!!!!!! 5-7 mono