低碳约束下我国能源供应保障的空间效应研究.pdfVIP

资源开发与市场 R回ource Development & Market 2015 31 ( 4 ) ·研究方法· doi: 10.3969心. issn.1∞'5 - 8141 .2015.04.∞5 低碳约束下我国能源供应保障的空间效应研究 赵淑英，何丽霞，孙永波 (黑龙江科技大学，黑龙江哈尔滨 15(阻2) 摘要:运用空间计量模型对2【刷一2012 年我国 31 个省区能源供应保障的影响因素进行测算，将空间因素和低碳约束纳入研究 框架，构建了基于空间面板数据的空间滞后模型、空间误差模型和空间杜宾模型，通过进行 LM 和 Wald 检验，选择时间固定和地区 时间固定的空间社宾模型，综合考虑空间效应、能源产量、产业结构、能源效率、能源消费结构、人均 GDP 和低碳约束等因素对我国 省域能源供应保障的影响。研究发现，能源产量、产业结构、能源效率和人均 GDP 是影响能源供应保障的主要因素，且这些因素存 在着明显的空间溢出效应。 关键词:能源供应保障;空间面板数据模型:空间杜宾模型 中图分类号:X24 文献标志码:A 文章编号:1 ∞15 - 8141 (2015)04- 例。1 - 05 R笛earcb on Space Effect of Energy Supply securi句 Under 也e Low Carbon Rωtriction ZHAO Shu- ying , HE Li- xia , SUN Yong- bo (Heilongjiang University of Science and Technology ,Harbin 15ω22， China) A阳市ad: This paper used the spatial econometric model by calculating the influence factors of the ene喀y supply for 31 provinces in China from 2006 to 2012. 四e space factors and low carbon restriction were brought into the research framework. It constructed spatial lag model , spatial error model and spatial Durbin model based on spatial panel data. 四rough LM test and Wald test ,it ch08e to adopt the fixed time and the Durbin model of regional fixed time. Considering spatial effects comprehensivly ,ene耶production ， indu8trial structure ,energy efficiency ,e配电y consumption structure , per capita GDP and low carbon constraints factors of provincial ene鸣y supply 回curily in China. 四e research found 由at ene略y production ,industrial structure ,energy efficiency and GDP per capita were the main factors 由at influenced 由e ene嗯y supply 回C山ity ,and these facto四 ex.isted obvioU8 spa- lial spillover eff，田ts. Key words: ene喀y supply 回curi句;8阳tial panel data model; spatial Durbin model 世界能源供