Analysing Social Epidemics by Delayed Stochastic Models英文文献资料.docVIP

HindawiPublishingCorporation DiscreteDynamicsinNatureandSociety Volume2012,ArticleID530472,13pages doi:10.1155/2012/530472 ResearchArticle AnalysingSocialEpidemicsby DelayedStochasticModels Francisco-Jose′ Santonja andLeonidShaikhet 1 2 1Department ofStatisticsandOperational Research,University ofValencia,Dr.Moliner50, 46100Burjassot,Spain 2Department ofHigherMathematics, DonestskStateUniversity ofManagement, 163aChelyuskintsev Street,83015Donetsk,Ukraine Correspondence shouldbeaddressedtoFrancisco-Jos′eSantonja, francisco.santonja@uv.es Received8May2012;Revised23May2012;Accepted 23May2012 Academic Editor:SeenithSivasundaram Copyright q2012F.-J.SantonjaandL.Shaikhet. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction inanymedium,providedtheoriginalworkisproperlycited. We investigate the dynamics of a delayed stochastic mathematical model to understand the evolutionofthealcoholconsumptioninSpain.Su?cientconditionforstabilityinprobabilityofthe equilibrium point ofthedynamic model withaftere?ectandstochastic perturbations isobtained via Kolmanovskii and Shaikhet general method of Lyapunov functionals construction. We conclude thatalcohol consumption inSpainwillbeconstant withstabilityintimewitharound 36.47% of nonconsumers, 62.94% of nonrisk consumers, and 0.59% of risk consumers. This approachallowsustoemphasizethepossibilitiesofthedynamicalmodelsinordertostudyhuman behaviour. 1.Introduction Inthispaper,weproposeamathematicalframeworktomodelsocialepidemics.Tobeprecise, weproposedelayedandstochasticconsiderationonmathematicalmodelstoanalyzehuman behaviorsrelatedtoaddictions. Hereditarysystemsorsystemswithdelaysareverypopularinresearchessee,e.g., 1–4 andthereferencestherein.Inthispaper,anonlineardynamicalcoholconsumption model 5 is generalized via adding distributed delays. Su?cient conditions for existence ofthepositiveeq