Adjusting HIV Prevalence for Survey Non-Response Using Mortality Rates An Application of the Method Using Surveillance Data from Rural South Africa 英文参考文献.docVIP

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Adjusting HIV Prevalence for Survey Non-Response Using Mortality Rates An Application of the Method Using Surveillance Data from Rural South Africa 英文参考文献.doc

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Adjusting HIV Prevalence for Survey Non-Response Using Mortality Rates An Application of the Method Using Surveillance Data from Rural South Africa 英文参考文献

AdjustingHIVPrevalenceforSurveyNon-Response UsingMortalityRates:AnApplicationoftheMethod UsingSurveillanceDatafromRuralSouthAfrica MakandweNyirenda1*,BasiaZaba3,TillBa¨rnighausen1,2,VictoriaHosegood1,3,Marie-LouiseNewell1,4 1AfricaCentreforHealthandPopulationStudies,UniversityofKwaZulu-Natal,KwaZulu-Natal,SouthAfrica,2DepartmentofPopulationandInternationalHealth,Harvard SchoolofPublicHealth,Boston,Massachusetts,UnitedStatesofAmerica,3CentreforPopulationStudies,LondonSchoolofHygieneandTropicalMedicine,London, UnitedKingdom,4CentreforPaediatricEpidemiologyandBiostatistics,UCLInstituteofChildHealth,London,UnitedKingdom Abstract Background: The main source of HIV prevalence estimates are household and population-based surveys; however, high refusalratesmayhindertheinterpretationofsuchestimates.ThestudyobjectivewastoevaluatewhetherpopulationHIV prevalenceestimatescanbeadjustedforsurveynon-responseusingmortalityrates. Methodology/PrincipalFindings:DatacomefromthelongitudinalAfricaCentreDemographicInformationSystem(ACDIS), in rural South Africa. Mortality rates for persons tested and not tested in the 2005 HIV surveillance were available from routinehouseholdsurveillance.AssumingHIVstatusamongindividualscontactedbutwhorefusedtotest(non-response)is missingatrandomandmortalityamongnon-testerscanberelatedtomortalityofthosetestedamathematicalmodelwas developed. Non-parametric bootstrapping was used to estimate the 95% confidence intervals around the estimates. Mortalityrateswerehigheramonguntested(16.9perthousandperson-years)thantestedpopulation(11.6perthousand person-years),suggestinghigherHIVprevalenceintheformer.AdjustedHIVprevalenceforfemales(15–49years)was31.6% (95%CI26.1–37.1)comparedtoobserved25.2%(95%CI24.0–26.4).Formales(15–49years)adjustedHIVprevalencewas 19.8%(95%CI14.8–24.8),comparedtoobserved13.2%(95%CI12.1–14.3).Forbothsexes(15–49years)combined,adjusted prevalence was 27.5% (95% CI 23.6–31.3), and observed prevalence was 19.7% (95% CI 19.6–21.3). Overall, obser