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我国上市公司管理者过度自信与公司冒险行为相关性的研究----基于生命周期理论的探索.pdf 64页

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我国上市公司管理者过度自信与公司冒险行为相关性的研究----基于生命周期理论的探索
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南京财经大学硕士论文 Abstract With the increasing competition in the market ,the relationship between managers’ irrational behavior ,especially cognitive bias of overconfidence ,and corporate financial decision has becoming a new hot issue. Based on the background Of Chinese institution ,there are few of studies on the relationship between managers’ Overconfidence and firm risk taking. Therefore ,this Paper will try to Study the following questions: whether managers’ cognitive bias of overconfidence Exists in Chinese listed companies? How does managers’ confidence influence firm risk taking? Moreover ,how to change the relationship between the two during different life cycle ? And Firstly,this Paper traces Psychology origin of managers’ overconfidence , and expounds the inherent relationship between managers’ overconfidence and firm risk taking. And then analyses reasons of firm risk behavior, expounds managers’ the correlation of overconfidence and firm risk taking; Secondly, The indicator is designed to measure managers’ overconfidence, this paper researches how overconfident managers choose corporate strategy by following the approach of layer-upon-layer,and examines the correlation of managers’ overconfidence and firm risk tasking. Third, this paper analyzes the relationship between both how to change with different life cycle of China's listed companies. The main contributions of this Paper are reflected as follows: 1. The Paper designs the indicator to measure managers’ overconfidence based on the listed company earnings forecast system of China. Using the manager stock holdings constructs the metric managers’ overconfidence index. T

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