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New Paths to Development: The rise of the South and South-South Integration Piergiuseppe FORTUNATO - ECIDC UNCTAD, Geneva - September 28, 2011 Outline Outline Emerging and Developing Countries Driving Global Growth since 2000 Contribution to world GDP/PPP growth 1990-2015 Annual global GDP-PPP growth rate (based on 3-yr moving average) Source: OECD Development Centre, Perspectives on Global Development 2010 Shifting Wealth based on IMF World Economic Outlook, 2010, April Notes: Data for 2010-2015 based on IMF projections Catching Up? Weathering the global crisis (growth rate of GDP, % change from a year earlier)                           Disaggregating the data: China and the others I Disaggregating the data: China and the others II Outline Labor supply: More than 1 bln workers joined global labour force since late 1980s → (low-skilled) wages ↓ Raw material demand raised → commodity prices ↑ (here) Developing countries from net debtor to net creditor → liquidity ↑ interest rates ↓ (here) (back) Developing Economies no Longer Perceived as High risk/Low return Source: OECD Development Centre, Perspectives on Global Development 2010 Shifting Wealth based on IMF World Economic Outlook, 2010, April Public Debt as % of GDP Developing Countries Now Hold Most Foreign Exchange Reserves Source: IMF International Financial Statistics, Sept 2010 (back) The South grew rapidly also thanks to the (debt fuelled) demand from the North Will the South be able to continue growing even after the crisis? (cfr Arthur Lewis Nobel lecture) South-South could be the solution… Outline The Increasing Importance of the South to the South Trade Foreign Direct Investment Aid Evolution of south south trade Rising Share of South-South Trade on Global Trade  Source: OECD Development Centre, Perspectives on Global Development 2010 Shifting Wealth based on UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics (2010), excluding transition economies Rising Share of South-South Trade on Global Trade