Ch6-交通大学.ppt

Structured Problems Involve goals that clear. Are familiar (have occurred before). Are easily and completely defined—information about the problem is available and complete. Programmed Decision A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach. e.g. Policy, Procedure, Rules. * Unstructured Problems Problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete. Problems that will require custom-made solutions. Nonprogrammed Decisions Decisions that are unique and nonrecurring. Decisions that generate unique responses. * Programmed Decisions Nonprogrammed Decisions Level in Organization Top Lower Well-structured Ill-structured Type of Problem 3.1 由技入道！ * * 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 * 3.2 Decision-Making Conditions Certainty A situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known. Risk A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives. * 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 * Expected Value for Revenues from the Addition of One Ski Lift Expected Expected × Probability = Value of EachEvent Revenues Alternative Heavy snowfall $850,000 0.3 = $255,000 Normal snowfall 725,000 0.5 = 362,500 Light snowfall 350,000 0.2 = 70,000 $687,500 * 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 * Uncertainty Limited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives. Maximax: the optimistic manager’s choice to maximize the maximum payoff Maximin: the pessimistic manager’s choice to maximize the minimum payoff Minimax: the manager’s choice to minimize maximum regret. * 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 * PAYOFF MATRIX (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 11 9 15* 14 24 21 28 14 18 24 28* * * 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 * REGRET MATRIX (IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 17 15 13 7* * * 交通大學管理學院 任維廉教授 * 4. Decision-Making Styles Dimensions of Decision-Making Styles Linear thinking style Using external data and facts Processing t