基于非合作博弈的期货市场策略分析.pdfVIP

练水银讲..，营富叶先 2012 年第 11 期 基于非合作博弈的期货市场策略分析 刘敬伟1 ，蒲勇健2 (1.重庆工商职业学院，重庆 4∞052; 2. 重庆大学经济与工商管理学院，重庆 40∞30) 摘 要:本文基于非合作博弈的方法，通过建立非合作博弈模型对期贷市场多空双方的行动策略进行分析，分别就完全信 息博弈、不完全信息博弈和不完美信息博弈三种不同的博弈环境，讨论了多空双方在不同的市场形势下的行动策略、博弈的均 衡及结果。分析结果表明在不同的博弈环境下，无论是均势市场、多头市场还是空头市场，资金和信息对于期货市场多空双方 的博弈策略具有至关重要的影响。基于此结论，本文进一步提出，为了获得资金优势和信息优势，建立期货投资基金，形成博 弈联盟是一种有效的博弈形式，以此为基础的合作博弈分析方法是分析联盟博弈的有效方法。 关键词:非合作博弈:博弈策略;期贷市场;风险投资 中圈分类号: F724.5 文献标识码:A 文章编号: 1∞4-292X(2012)11-0104-04 、 气 Strategy Analysis of Futures Market based 00 Noo-cooperative Game LIU Jing-wej1, PU Yong-jian2 (1. Chongqing Technology and Business Institute , Chongqing 400052 , China; 2. School of Economics and Business Administration , Chongqing University , Chongqing 400030 , Chlna) Abstract: Based on the non-c∞perative game the。可 approach ， this article analyzed the action strategies of long and f!hort posi- tions in the future markct , by setting up a non-cooperative game models. In the conditions of complete game , incomplete game and im- perfect game , this paper discussed the action strategies , equilibrium and outcome of game of long and short positions with different market situation. The result of the article showed that capitals and information plays a important roles in the game of long and short posi- tions in the future market. Accordingly , in order to gain the advantage of capitals and information , establishing future funds is an effective game form of union. According to 也is ， cooperative game method is an effective analysis method to analyzing union game. Key words: