气候变化对甘肃河西走廊地区沙漠化影响的风险评价-兰州大学.PDF

兰州大学学报: 自然科学版, 2016, 52(6) / 12 月 Journal of Lanzhou University ：Natural Sciences，2016 ，52(6) / December 气候变化对甘肃河西走廊地区沙漠化影响的风险评价 丁文广, 陈利珍, 徐 浩, 许 娈 兰州大学 资源环境学院, 西部环境教育部重点实验室, 兰州 730000 摘 要：在3S 技术的支持下, 重建了过去30 a 甘肃河西走廊地区沙漠化时空演变过程, 构建出了一 种动态模拟和评估沙漠化风险的评估方法, 基于多模式气候变化情景数据对未来30 a 气候变化造成 的沙漠化风险进行了预估. 研究发现: 过去30 a 甘肃河西走廊地区的沙漠化时空演变在空间分布的 区域位置上没有发生重大改变, 但沙漠化面积有所减小; 甘肃河西走廊地区归一化植被指数与年积 温间的相关性不十分显著, 年降水量比年积温对甘肃河西走廊地区归一化植被指数的贡献大; 未来 30 a 不同气候变化情景下, 甘肃河西走廊地区沙漠化风险空间分布表现特征不同, 其中RCP2.6 与 RCP4.5 情景下沙漠化风险空间分布表现出较高的相似性, RCP6.0 情景下沙漠化风险最小, RCP8.5 情景下沙漠化风险最大. 关键词：沙漠化; 气候变化; 河西走廊地区 中图分类号：P903 文献标识码：A 文章编号: 0455-2059(2016)06-0746-10 DOI: 10.13885/j.issn.0455-2059.2016.06.006 Assessment of desertification risks caused by climate changes in the Hexi Corridor Region in Gansu Province Ding Wen-guang, Chen Li-zhen, Xu Hao, Xu Luan Key Laboratory of Western Chinas Environmental Systems with the Ministry of Education, College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China Abstract: With the support of 3S technology, the spatio-temporal desertification process of Hexi Corridor Region in Gansu Province was reconstructed for the past 30 years. A method was constructed for the dy- namic simulation and evaluation of risks of desertification. Based on the scenario data of climate chang- es, desertification risks in the future 30 years were predicted. The results showed that during the past 30 years, the desertification distribution in Hexi Corridor Region in Gansu Province underwent no signifi- cant change but its area decreased, the correlation between normalized difference vegetation index and ac- cumulated temperature was not very significant and the annual precipitation contributed more than the an- nual ac