fiscal position in Latin America-have they really improved英文教材.pdf

WP/08/ 137 Fiscal Positions in Latin America: Have They Really Improved? Ivanna Vladkova-Hollar and Jeromin Zettelmeyer © 2008 International Monetary Fund WP/08/ 137 IMF Working Paper Western Hemisphere and Research Departments Fiscal Positions in Latin America: Have They Really Improved? Prepared by Ivanna Vladkova-Hollar and Jeromin Zettelmeyer1 May 2008 Abstract This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. Fiscal performance in Latin America looks much improved this decade compared to the 1980s or 1990s. Is this a “structural” improvement or likely to be transitory? This paper answers this question by estimating the relationship between non-commodity revenue and the economic cycle, and evaluating commodity revenues using alternative medium term commodity price projections. The main result is that structural revenues have indeed improved as a share of GDP, and structural primary balances are currently in surplus in many Latin American countries. However, the magnitude of these improvements is uncertain, in part due to uncertainty about the commodity price outlook. JEL Classification Numbers: F40 Keywords: revenues, taxes, structural fiscal balance, commo