北极臭氧损耗对东亚中高纬地区初春地面气温影响的转折点分析a.PDFVIP

a 北极臭氧损耗对东亚中高纬地区初春地面气温影响的转折点分析 1b 1c 2 郑明华 付遵涛 陈哲 1 北京大学物理学院，北京，100871 2 国家气象局信息中心，北京，100089 摘要： 自从1985 年南半球极地臭氧损耗被发现以来，平流层臭氧损耗所引起的辐射效 应和气候效应受到越来越多的关注。本文利用奇异值分解、合成分析和变点检测等统计方法 集中分析北极臭氧损耗对东亚中高纬度地区初春地面气温的影响。结果表明：(1) 受北极臭 氧损耗影响而气温变化显著的区域为东亚中高纬度地区，与臭氧损耗关系最密切的地面气温 空间模态是以贝加尔湖西北为中心的暖异常。(2) 北极臭氧损耗对地面气温的影响不仅仅体 现在空间上，还体现在时间上。除了贝加尔湖西北-东西伯利亚大片区域外，我国华北和西 北也存在显著的负异常提前进入暖季。(3) 臭氧损耗对关键区域的气温突变点影响的幅度很 大，约在 3-5 天，这对于复杂的 3 月气温短期预测起到重要的参考意义。 关键词：臭氧损耗，地面气温，奇异值分解，合成分析，变点检测 The Possible Impact of Arctic Ozone Depletion on Surface Air Temperature in Asia-Pacific Region during springtime 1 1 2 Zheng Minghua Fu Zuntao Chen Zhe 1 School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, 100871 2 National Meteorological Information Center, Beijing, 100089 Absract Since 1985 when the Antarctic ozone hole was first observed, the ozone depletion has received increasingly attention. In this paper, using the TOMS satellites data and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, we studied the influence of the Arctic ozone depletion on surface air temperature (SAT) in the middle-high latitude East-Asia region during spring onset time. The results show that 1) the target region impacted by ozone depletion is located in the middle-high latitude of East-Asia; 2) the influence of ozone depletion on the SAT in the middle-high latitude East-Asia region during spring onset time is not only in the