研究假设变量定义和模型设计-南开管理评论.DOC

经济周期、行业周期性与盈余管理程度 ——来自中国上市公司的经验证据 Business Cycle, Industry Cyclical and Magnitude of Earnings Management —— Empirical Evidence from China’s Listed Companies 【摘要】 本文研究了企业在经济周期不同阶段盈余管理程度是否存在差异，以及周期性和非周期性行业企业盈余管理程度是否存在差异。通过检验我国A股上市公司间经济周期收缩期和扩张期周期性与非周期性行业公司可操控性应计利润绝对值的差异，本文发现，周期性行业公司盈余管理程度总体上大于非周期性行业；盈余管理程度在经济收缩期大于扩张期，但这种差异主要是由周期性行业公司导致的：非周期性行业公司的盈余管理程度在经济收缩期期与经济扩张期并无显著差异，而周期性行业公司的盈余管理程度在经济收缩期显著大于经济扩张期。本文的检验结果表明，在研究盈余管理时，应考虑控制周期性行业与非周期性行业之间，以及经济周期不同阶段的差别。 【关键词】经济周期 行业周期性 盈余管理 可操控性应计利润 【Abstract】This paper examines whether the magnitude of earnings management of firms between different stages of business cycle is different, and whether the magnitude of earnings management of firms between cyclical and non-cyclical industries is different. By testing the differences of magnitude of absolute value of discretionary accruals between economic contraction period expansion period, and between cyclical and non-cyclical industries from Year 2000 to Year 2011, we find that, compared with non-cyclical industries, the magnitude of earnings management of cyclical industries is higher. In addition, the magnitude of earnings management is higher during economic contraction period relative to that during the expansions. But this difference is mainly caused by cyclical industries: the difference is insignificantly different from zero for non-cyclical industries but significantly positive for cyclical ones. The testing results show the necessity of controlling for the difference between cyclical and non-cyclical industries, as well as the different stages of business cycle in the study on earnings management. 【Key Words】Business Cycle, Industry Cyclical, Earnings Management, Discretionary Accruals 一、引言 上市公司盈余管理是投资者、监管机构及会计准则制定机构关心的重要问题，也是学术界研究的核心问题之一。许多文献从不同的角度，对上市公司盈余管理的动机、方向和程度进行了实证研究。然而，对于受宏观经济波动影响程度不一的不同行业而言，盈余管理的特点是否存在差别，则较少涉及到。 本文按照宏观经济研究中对经济周期不同阶段的划分，研究了宏观经济收缩阶段和扩张阶段上市公司盈余管理的差异，并将上市公司划分为周期性行业和非周期性行业，研究了周期性和非周期性行业的公司在经济周期收缩阶段和扩张阶段盈余管理程度的差异。通过检验2000—2011年间经济周期不同阶段周期性与非周期性