unit 5 Take a lesson from the economists 翻译.doc

Unit 5 Take a lesson from the economists Economics is the dismal science: so say the large number of people who heap scorn on the intellectural merits of the discipline. Much of the criticism comes from pure or proper scientist —— physicists, chemists and biologists. Now, economics certainly has its failings. But the general way in which economists approach and describe the world, and how they convey their message about it to others , carries lessons which pure scientists should learn from. 经济学是一门消沉的科学：大量对这门学科的理性优点长期不屑的人这么说。大部分批评来自于“纯粹”或者是“适当”的科学家们—物理学家们，化学学家们，生物学家们。现在，经济学的确有他的缺点，但是经济学家们接触和描述世界的一般方法和他们传递消息给其他人的方式，是纯粹科学家们需要学习的。 Economics has inexactitudes and vagueness built into it. The general lack of reliable data about past events makes virtually impossible the accurate measurement of even the most basic economic variables, such as the total volume of output in a country, or the path of consumer spending, or inflation. 经济学的建立存在不精确性和含糊性。关于过去事件的可靠数据的缺少，使得即便是最基础的经济学变量的精确测量几乎不可能，比如说一个国家的出口总量，消费者的消费情况图，和通货膨胀。 If economists are hazy about what is going right now, they are even less sure about the future. Due to the general measurement difficulties, as well as unforeseen events such as wars or natural disasters, economic forecasts are almost always wrong, sometimes by wide margins. As for economic theories, they change almost according to fashion, with economists allowed to move effortlessly between them, sometimes holding several contrasting points of view at the same time. 如果经济学家们对现在的情况不明确，他们对未来的情况就更不确定。由于总体测量的困难性，以及战争和自然灾害等的不可预见性，经济学的预测通常是错误的，有时甚至是错的非常离谱的。由于经济学理论通常会跟随潮流改变，经济学家们只能无助地在他们之间移动，有时还会同时持有几种有对照性的观点。 The contrast with scientists could not be starker. The tools of an economists trade are muddy data, loose theorising and a shambling approach to causality which says . that a set of interactions between A, B and C MIGHT lead to a conclusion Z (and only via a roundabout route which takes in P, Q and R as well) . Scientists have a harder-edged way