The Lincoln Index - Mac OS X Server林肯指数——Mac OS X服务器.pptVIP

Estimate the size of a turtle population: year Captured Marked pond turtles 1992: 18 1993: 34 12 1994: 30 18 Results1992: 18 1993: 34 (12) 1994: 30 (18) The total number marked is 18 + 34 – 12 = 40 The population estimate: 1992-94: N = 40(30) = 67 turtles 18 This assumes that none of the paint came off of the turtles over the course of two years. Mini experiment: Does the size of the first capture, n1, while the size of the second capture is held constant, affect the accuracy of the population estimate, N? Does the size of the second capture, n2, while the size of the first capture is held constant, affect the accuracy of the population estimate, N? Hypothesis? Do you think that the Lincoln Index is more reliable if many animals are captured and marked in the first capture? Do you think that the Lincoln Index is more reliable if many animals are captured in the second capture? Mini experiment with beans You will use beans instead of animals to study the accuracy of the Lincoln index. Independent variable: Vary either the size of the first capture OR the second capture while holding the other variable constant Dependent variable: The value for m2 will change, so the value for the population estimate, N, will change…. maybe Minilab: Investigation with beans: Count 150 beans into a cup Capture as many beans as you choose, n1 Mark the captured beans. Release the marked beans into the cup and mix. Capture a second sample, n2 Count the number of marked beans in the second sample, m2 Repeat for four more trials, using the same size captures. ( Five trials of the same experiment should improve your accuracy and allows you to calculate the standard deviation.) Change the size of the first OR second capture while keeping the same value for the other capture. Repeat Change the number of beans captured again so that you the independent variable changes five times. Data table: Numbers of beans c