您所在位置网站首页 > 海量文档  > 经济/贸易/财会 > 经济学

The economic crisis in Europe – causes, effects, policies, options.ppt 18页

本文档一共被下载: ,您可全文免费在线阅读后下载本文档。

  • 支付并下载
  • 收藏该文档
  • 百度一下本文档
  • 修改文档简介


Andrew Watt ? etui (2009) Economic crisis - Vilnius The economic crisis in Europe – causes, effects, policies, alternatives Presentation to PERC seminar on the crisis in the Baltics, Vilnius, 9 June 2009 Overview Causes Current situation Green shoots? EU policy response Critique – what needs to be done Causes – not just a financial crisis Sharp rise in commodity prices Sharp appreciation of the euro Lagged effect of past interest-rate rises Imbalances and (housing) booms in some EU countries Then shock from US hit Europe: US consumer retrenchment Fed rate cuts led to more appreciation of euro Toxic assets held by EU banks Emerging markets and world trade hit Grim prospects for EU (worse than US) Massive output drop – but no unsustainable boom Severe lagged impact on (un)employment Severe lagged impact on fiscal position Bottoming out? – sentiment indicators Bottoming out? – share prices Bottoming out? - industrial production Downside risks Renewed rise in commodity prices Unexploded bombs in the financial sector (especially in Europe!) Collapse of the US-dollar Currency crises in eastern Europe Premature exit strategies Policy response in Europe – too little too late Cut in interest rates limited impact on firms borrowing costs Policy response in Europe – too little too late Policy response in Europe – too little too late Assessment of fiscal packages The fiscal packages in the EU are too small they offer a ‘quantum of solace’ to Europe and fail to address global imbalances. Current self-satisfaction by policymakers completely inappropriate. The distribution across countries varies considerably. On the positive side, to some extent this is justified economically and widespread free-riding seems to have been avoided (success for EU). However, the supposed ‘fiscal room for manoeuvre’ seems to be a binding constraint on more cyclically appropriate policies. Particularly problematic in eastern Europe (IMF). Failure of European fiscal solidarity. Mixed picture in te


用户名: 验证码: 点击我更换图片

“原创力文档”前称为“文档投稿赚钱网”,本站为“文档C2C交易模式”,即用户上传的文档直接卖给(下载)用户,本站只是中间服务平台,本站所有文档下载所得的收益归上传人(含作者)所有【成交的100%(原创)】。原创力文档是网络服务平台方,若您的权利被侵害,侵权客服QQ:3005833200 电话:19940600175 欢迎举报,上传者QQ群:784321556