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The economic crisis in Europe – causes, effects, policies, options.ppt 18页

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Andrew Watt ? etui (2009) Economic crisis - Vilnius The economic crisis in Europe – causes, effects, policies, alternatives Presentation to PERC seminar on the crisis in the Baltics, Vilnius, 9 June 2009 Overview Causes Current situation Green shoots? EU policy response Critique – what needs to be done Causes – not just a financial crisis Sharp rise in commodity prices Sharp appreciation of the euro Lagged effect of past interest-rate rises Imbalances and (housing) booms in some EU countries Then shock from US hit Europe: US consumer retrenchment Fed rate cuts led to more appreciation of euro Toxic assets held by EU banks Emerging markets and world trade hit Grim prospects for EU (worse than US) Massive output drop – but no unsustainable boom Severe lagged impact on (un)employment Severe lagged impact on fiscal position Bottoming out? – sentiment indicators Bottoming out? – share prices Bottoming out? - industrial production Downside risks Renewed rise in commodity prices Unexploded bombs in the financial sector (especially in Europe!) Collapse of the US-dollar Currency crises in eastern Europe Premature exit strategies Policy response in Europe – too little too late Cut in interest rates limited impact on firms borrowing costs Policy response in Europe – too little too late Policy response in Europe – too little too late Assessment of fiscal packages The fiscal packages in the EU are too small they offer a ‘quantum of solace’ to Europe and fail to address global imbalances. Current self-satisfaction by policymakers completely inappropriate. The distribution across countries varies considerably. On the positive side, to some extent this is justified economically and widespread free-riding seems to have been avoided (success for EU). However, the supposed ‘fiscal room for manoeuvre’ seems to be a binding constraint on more cyclically appropriate policies. Particularly problematic in eastern Europe (IMF). Failure of European fiscal solidarity. Mixed picture in te

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